This report examines the geopolitical implications of the emergence of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) for Europe. It finds that Europe currently lacks sufficient strategic awareness and competitive positioning to navigate this transition. The report proposes an authoritative AGI Preparedness Report to outline a coherent European agenda for safety, security, and prosperity.

Europe and the geopolitics of AGI

The need for a preparedness plan

Maximilian Negele, Daan Juijn, Afek Shamir, David Janků, Bengüsu Özcan, Lisa Soder, Lucia Velasco, Max Reddel, Michiel Bakker, Lorenzo Pacchiardi, et al.

ResearchPublished Dec 16, 2025

Artificial general intelligence (AGI) has moved from speculation to the centre of political debate. This report examines arguments that AGI could emerge in the near future and considers what such a development would mean for Europe. It adopts a working definition of AGI as AI systems that match or exceed humans at most economically useful cognitive work. On this definition, empirical trends and expert judgement suggest that it is plausible that AGI could emerge between 2030 and 2040 or even earlier, though uncertainty remains substantial. The emergence of such systems could reshape economic growth, military capabilities and international stability, while intensifying competitive and coercive dynamics among nations. Yet Europe currently lacks sufficient strategic awareness of frontier AI progress, lags on key measures of competitive positioning and holds only limited leverage in the AI value chain. Existing EU and Member State strategies remain fragmented and do not match the potential stakes. This report therefore proposes an authoritative AGI Preparedness Report led by a figure with exceptional political authority and technical credibility, supported by a world class team, with the mandate to outline a coherent European agenda for prosperity, security and stable international governance in a possible AGI era.

Key Takeaways

  • AI systems matching or exceeding humans at most economically useful cognitive work — a plausible threshold for AGI — may arrive soon, plausibly between 2030-2040, or even earlier
  • The emergence of AGI could fundamentally reshape the global distribution of power, with significant implications for economic growth, military capabilities, and international stability
  • Europe currently lacks the strategic awareness, competitive positioning, and policy strategies to navigate a potential transformation to a world with AGI

Recommendations

The President of the European Commission should commission an 'AGI Preparedness Report' addressing three questions:

  • How can Europe capture economic benefits from AGI while remaining sovereign?
  • How can Europe prepare its institutions and societies for rapid change from AGI?
  • How can Europe strengthen international stability, security, and shared prosperity in a world shaped by AGI?

The Report should be spearheaded by a lead author with both strong technical credibility and the highest political standing. The lead author should be afforded:

  • The intellectual freedom to write an independent analysis.
  • Resources to assemble a small, agile, team of world-class experts to conduct technically rigorous research, and commission analyses from external experts.
  • Senior political support to move through processes fast, including in terms of input from EU institutions, Member State governments and external actors.

The Report should be technically rigorous and based on the best available evidence, while also taking an anticipatory stance and being explicit about uncertainty.

The Report should be delivered quickly, ideally within six months, to reflect that AGI may be near and to maximise the available time for implementation.

The Report should be presented to the European Council at a dedicated event, to enable a parallel diplomatic process and high-level endorsements.

Topics

Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation and Centre for Future Generations
  • Publisher: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Web-Only
  • Year: 2025
  • Pages: 102
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA4636-1
  • Document Number: RR-A4636-1

Citation

Chicago Manual of Style

Negele, Maximilian, Daan Juijn, Afek Shamir, David Janků, Bengüsu Özcan, Lisa Soder, Lucia Velasco, Max Reddel, Michiel Bakker, Lorenzo Pacchiardi, and Maksym Andriushchenko, Europe and the geopolitics of AGI: The need for a preparedness plan. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2025. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA4636-1.html.
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This research was independently initiated and conducted jointly by RAND Europe, the Center on AI, Security, and Technology within RAND Global and Emerging Risks, and the Centre for Future Generations using income from operations and gifts and grants from philanthropic supporters.

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